The Christian-Science Monitor reports today that, "Hamas did allow scarce goods to flow into the territory and shown itself capable of forcing an alternative economic lifeline open," due to Israel's border-wall. I don't know how they could have seen that coming... The same article includes a comment from a professor at Hebrew University predicting that as a result, there could be four way negotiations between Egypt, Israel, Hamas, and Fatah; if the Israeli government is set on delegitimizing Hamas' movement and calming some of the extremism of it's followers, then including Hamas in government and official decisions is the way to do it. If Hamas operates with the government, it will have to make sacrifices on some of its extreme positions, with a negotiations compromising its radical agenda, creating watered-down issue stances. This turns away the extremists from the group, but since Hamas is a network form insurgent group (no real heirarchy present, collection of individual cells) the extremist cells will break off to form different groups (which is how Hamas got started after Fatah was legitimized with a truce with Israel-- Lost many dedicated individuals to its suicide missions, mostly less dedicated administrators left, had to hire more legitimate adminstration officials with its negotiations and role in regional government, then it became corrupt and extremists abandoned the group). This would more than likely happen with Hamas, but it just depends if Hamas appears threatening enough to the Israeli dominance of Gaza+West Bank. In a sense it's a gamble, since most insurgent groups are not successful, there is a chance that if Hamas splintered no dominant insurgent group could form, though with the rise of PLO (organization of smaller groups dedicated to the formation of a Palestine state), despite the differing dogma between the allied groups, more minor groups are organizing and becoming more relevant. For the record, I'm quite in favor of a Palestinian state; I am just analyzing the conflict.
1.28.2008
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